Speculation is growing about the consequences for Bitcoin if the Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF gets regulatory approval in March.
After almost four years of waiting, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is nearing its “yes” or “no” deadline of March 11 – and the consequences of a positive decision could be huge.
According to the Cointelegraph twitter poll, about a third of the respondents believe that the Bitcoin price will reach $1,500 this month.
$300 mln influx
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, wholesale trader Bobby Cho forecast that markets would react to the sudden influx of investors. Previous estimates by analyst Spencer Bogart suggest that the ETF’s launch could add around $300 mln to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Bobby Cho says:
“The market will feel the effect of authorized participants going out there and looking to source [$300 mln] 10 times more than the daily volume that goes through any of the exchanges.”
The Winklevoss’ instrument has faced more than its fair share of skepticism over the years, especially in the run-up to the SEC decision.
Bogart, who previously stated he thought the chances of approval for the Bitcoin ETF were “less than 25 percent,” added to the WSJ that its unorthodox structure could prove to be a further stumbling block.
“I don’t believe there’s any ETF that trades in the U.S. where a single entity is the sponsor of the ETF, the provider of reference price for the underlying asset and the custodians of the underlying asset, and that is what the Winklevosses are proposing,” he said.
Concerns about trading effect mount
The fund’s creators have stepped up their bullish tone on Bitcoin in recent months. In December, they described Bitcoin as “potentially the greatest social network of all” which “matches or beats gold across the board.”
With the latter view, they are not alone, with Vinny Lingham also advocating Bitcoin as a more useful investment tool than gold in the coming years.
Regarding the ETF, however, further concerns shared by Cho, Bogart and other commentators focus on the relative malleability of the Bitcoin market. Large-scale investment moves could easily shift the market with every transaction, given the size of purchases common in the industry.
What the effects of such an influx would be on Bitcoin price and volatility remains to be seen. Trading volumes have recently undergone seismic changes, however, after Chinese activity declined by over 90 percent following the introduction of trading fees by local exchanges.